The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on physical activity in Stockholm County - Evidence from time series models of smartphone measured daily steps data spanning over 3 years.

BACKGROUND: It has been reported that physical activity levels decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Previous studies often relied on self-reported physical activity, which has low accuracy. Studies based on objectively measured physical activity have had short data collection periods, thereby not allowing the consideration of pre-pandemic levels of physical activity or the influence over the different waves of the pandemic. METHODS: In this study, we utilize smartphone-measured step data from a nonprobability sample in Stockholm County, Sweden, where measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 differed from those in many other countries. The results are based on 522 individuals and 532,739 person-days with step data spanning from 2019 to 2021. Generalized additive models were fitted for each individual, and meta-regression was used to combine the results from individual models. RESULTS: Daily steps decreased during the first wave but increased during the third wave compared to individual pre-pandemic levels. The decrease in daily steps occurred primarily in young individuals and those with occupations allowing remote work. Individuals of retirement age on the contrary increased their daily steps during the same period. CONCLUSIONS: This study reveal that the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic was temporary and that younger age and the possibility of working from home were associated with a decreasing trend in physical activity.

Undiagnosed type 2 diabetes is common - intensified screening of established risk groups is imperative in Sweden: the SDPP cohort.

BACKGROUND: Undiagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a global problem. Current strategies for diagnosis in Sweden include screening individuals within primary healthcare who are of high risk, such as those with hypertension, obesity, prediabetes, family history of diabetes, or those who smoke daily. In this study, we aimed to estimate the proportion of individuals with undiagnosed T2D in Stockholm County and factors associated with T2D being diagnosed by healthcare. This information could improve strategies for detection. METHODS: We used data from the Stockholm Diabetes Prevention Programme (SDPP) cohort together with information from national and regional registers. Individuals without T2D aged 35-56 years at baseline were followed up after two ten-year periods. The proportion of diagnosed T2D was based on register information for 7664 individuals during period 1 and for 5148 during period 2. Undiagnosed T2D was assessed by oral glucose tolerance tests at the end of each period. With logistic regression, we analysed factors associated with being diagnosed among individuals with T2D. RESULTS: At the end of the first period, the proportion of individuals with T2D who had been diagnosed with T2D or not was similar (54.0% undiagnosed). At the end of the second period, the proportion of individuals with T2D was generally higher, but they were less likely to be undiagnosed (43.5%). The likelihood of being diagnosed was in adjusted analyses associated with overweight (OR=1.85; 95% CI 1.22-2.80), obesity (OR=2.73; 95% CI 1.76-4.23), higher fasting blood glucose (OR=2.11; 95% CI 1.67-2.66), and self-estimated poor general health (OR=2.42; 95% CI 1.07-5.45). Socioeconomic factors were not associated with being diagnosed among individuals with T2D. Most individuals (>71%) who developed T2D belonged to risk groups defined by having at least two of the prominent risk factors obesity, hypertension, daily smoking, prediabetes, or family history of T2D, including individuals with T2D who had not been diagnosed by healthcare. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly half of individuals who develop T2D during 10 years in Stockholm County are undiagnosed, emphasizing a need for intensified screening of T2D within primary healthcare. Screening can be targeted to individuals who have at least two prominent risk factors.

Individual and neighborhood risk factors of hospital admission and death during the COVID-19 pandemic: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disproportionately affects minority populations in the USA. Sweden - like other Nordic countries - have less income and wealth inequality but lacks data on the socioeconomic impact on the risk of adverse outcomes due to COVID-19. METHODS: This population-wide study from March 2020 to March 2022 included all adults in Stockholm, except those in nursing homes or receiving in-home care. Data sources include hospitals, primary care (individual diagnoses), the Swedish National Tax Agency (death dates), the Total Population Register "RTB" (sex, age, birth country), the Household Register (size of household), the Integrated Database For Labor Market Research "LISA" (educational level, income, and occupation), and SmiNet (COVID data). Individual exposures include education, income, type of work and ability to work from home, living area and living conditions as well as the individual country of origin and co-morbidities. Additionally, we have data on the risks associated with living areas. We used a Cox proportional hazards model and logistic regression to estimate associations. Area-level covariates were used in a principal component analysis to generate a measurement of neighborhood deprivation. As outcomes, we used hospitalization and death due to COVID-19. RESULTS: Among the 1,782,125 persons, male sex, comorbidities, higher age, and not being born in Sweden increase the risk of hospitalization and death. So does lower education and lower income, the lowest incomes doubled the risk of death from COVID-19. Area estimates, where the model includes individual risks, show that high population density and a high percentage of foreign-born inhabitants increased the risk of hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Segregation and deprivation are public health issues elucidated by COVID-19. Neighborhood deprivation, prevalent in Stockholm, adds to individual risks and is associated with hospitalization and death. This finding is paramount for governments, agencies, and healthcare institutions interested in targeted interventions.

Characterization of data-driven clusters in diabetes-free adults and their utility for risk stratification of type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: The prevention of type 2 diabetes is challenging due to the variable effects of risk factors at an individual level. Data-driven methods could be useful to detect more homogeneous groups based on risk factor variability. The aim of this study was to derive characteristic phenotypes using cluster analysis of common risk factors and to assess their utility to stratify the risk of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Data on 7317 diabetes-free adults from Sweden were used in the main analysis and on 2332 diabetes-free adults from Mexico for external validation. Clusters were based on sex, family history of diabetes, educational attainment, fasting blood glucose and insulin levels, estimated insulin resistance and ß-cell function, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and BMI. The risk of type 2 diabetes was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. The predictive accuracy and long-term stability of the clusters were then compared to different definitions of prediabetes. RESULTS: Six risk phenotypes were identified independently in both cohorts: very low-risk (VLR), low-risk low ß-cell function (LRLB), low-risk high ß-cell function (LRHB), high-risk high blood pressure (HRHBP), high-risk ß-cell failure (HRBF), and high-risk insulin-resistant (HRIR). Compared to the LRHB cluster, the VLR and LRLB clusters showed a lower risk, while the HRHBP, HRBF, and HRIR clusters showed a higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes. The high-risk clusters, as a group, had a better predictive accuracy than prediabetes and adequate stability after 20 years. CONCLUSIONS: Phenotypes derived using cluster analysis were useful in stratifying the risk of type 2 diabetes among diabetes-free adults in two independent cohorts. These results could be used to develop more precise public health interventions.

Changing genetic architecture of body mass index from infancy to early adulthood: an individual based pooled analysis of 25 twin cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Body mass index (BMI) shows strong continuity over childhood and adolescence and high childhood BMI is the strongest predictor of adult obesity. Genetic factors strongly contribute to this continuity, but it is still poorly known how their contribution changes over childhood and adolescence. Thus, we used the genetic twin design to estimate the genetic correlations of BMI from infancy to adulthood and compared them to the genetic correlations of height. METHODS: We pooled individual level data from 25 longitudinal twin cohorts including 38,530 complete twin pairs and having 283,766 longitudinal height and weight measures. The data were analyzed using Cholesky decomposition offering genetic and environmental correlations of BMI and height between all age combinations from 1 to 19 years of age. RESULTS: The genetic correlations of BMI and height were stronger than the trait correlations. For BMI, we found that genetic correlations decreased as the age between the assessments increased, a trend that was especially visible from early to middle childhood. In contrast, for height, the genetic correlations were strong between all ages. Age-to-age correlations between environmental factors shared by co-twins were found for BMI in early childhood but disappeared altogether by middle childhood. For height, shared environmental correlations persisted from infancy to adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the genes affecting BMI change over childhood and adolescence leading to decreasing age-to-age genetic correlations. This change is especially visible from early to middle childhood indicating that new genetic factors start to affect BMI in middle childhood. Identifying mediating pathways of these genetic factors can open possibilities for interventions, especially for those children with high genetic predisposition to adult obesity.

Smoking remains associated with education after controlling for social background and genetic factors in a study of 18 twin cohorts.

We tested the causality between education and smoking using the natural experiment of discordant twin pairs allowing to optimally control for background genetic and childhood social factors. Data from 18 cohorts including 10,527 monozygotic (MZ) and same-sex dizygotic (DZ) twin pairs discordant for education and smoking were analyzed by linear fixed effects regression models. Within twin pairs, education levels were lower among the currently smoking than among the never smoking co-twins and this education difference was larger within DZ than MZ pairs. Similarly, education levels were higher among former smoking than among currently smoking co-twins, and this difference was larger within DZ pairs. Our results support the hypothesis of a causal effect of education on both current smoking status and smoking cessation. However, the even greater intra-pair differences within DZ pairs, who share only 50% of their segregating genes, provide evidence that shared genetic factors also contribute to these associations.

The Swedish military conscription register: opportunities for its use in medical research.

In Sweden, conscription around age 18y was mandatory for young men until June 30, 2010. From July 1, 2017, it became mandatory again for both sexes but the proportion of summoned people for standardised testing has so far been low. This paper describes the history, structure and content of the Swedish Military Conscription Register (SMCR). We retrieved information about the SMCR from written sources and through e-mail interviews with key personnel at the Swedish Defence Conscription and Assessment Agency. We also analysed data from the SMCR between 1969 and 2018. Between 1969 and 2018 the SMCR contains digital data on approximately 2 million individuals (98.6% men). Most conscripts were born between 1951 and 1988 (n = 1,900,000; tested between 1969 and 2006). For the 1951-1987 birth cohorts, the register has a population coverage of approximately 90% for men. Conscripts underwent written tests focusing on verbal, spatial, logical and technical ability, medical, physical, and psychological tests. The medical assessment included hearing, vision, muscle and exercise capacity, height, weight, blood pressure and resting heart rate. The SMCR has been widely used to study, e.g., obesity, cardiovascular disease, mental health, crime, cardiovascular fitness, muscle strength, sick leave and disability pension. Severe disease could qualify for exemption from military service. Thus, the prevalence of such diseases is underestimated in the SMCR population. Between 1990 and 2018, about 25,000 women also volunteered for testing. The SMCR contains population-based data on physical and psychological health in about 90% of all men born between 1951 and 1987 (corresponding to testing between 1969 and 2006), and can be used to address a host of research questions.

Fruit and vegetable intake and risk of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes: results from a 20-year long prospective cohort study in Swedish men and women.

PURPOSE: To investigate the association between fruit and vegetable intake (FVI) and the risk of developing prediabetes and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in a Swedish prospective cohort study. METHODS: Subjects were 6961 men and women aged 35-56 years old at baseline, participating in the Stockholm Diabetes Prevention Program cohort. By design, the cohort was enriched by 50% with subjects that had family history of diabetes. Anthropometric measurements, oral glucose tolerance tests and questionnaires on lifestyle and dietary factors were carried out at baseline and two follow-up occasions. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios with 95% CIs. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up time of 20 ± 4 years, 1024 subjects developed T2D and 870 prediabetes. After adjustments for confounders, the highest tertile of total FVI was associated with a lower risk of developing T2D in men (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.60-0.96). There was also an inverse association between total fruit intake and prediabetes risk in men, with the HR for the highest tertile being 0.76 (95% CI 0.58-1.00). As for subtypes, higher intake of apples/pears was inversely associated with T2D risk in both sexes, whereas higher intakes of banana, cabbage and tomato were positively associated with T2D or prediabetes risk in either men or women. CONCLUSION: We found an inverse association between higher total FVI and T2D risk and between higher fruit intake and prediabetes risk, in men but not in women. Certain fruit and vegetable subtypes showed varying results and require further investigation.

Caesarean section and its relationship to offspring general cognitive ability: a registry-based cohort study of half a million young male adults.

BACKGROUND: A relationship between caesarean section and offspring cognitive ability has been described, but data are limited, and a large-scale study is needed. OBJECTIVE: To determine the relationship between mode of delivery and general cognitive ability. METHODS: A cohort of 579 244 singleton males, born between 1973 and 1987 who conscripted before 2006, were identified using the Swedish population-based registries. Their mode of delivery was obtained from the Swedish Medical Birth registry. The outcome measure was a normalised general cognitive test battery (mean 100, SD 15) performed at military conscription at around age 18. FINDINGS: Males born by caesarean section performed poorer compared with those born vaginally (mean score 99.3 vs 100.1; adjusted mean difference -0.84; 95% CI -0.97 to -0.72; p<0.001). Both those born by elective (99.3 vs 100.2; -0.92; 95% CI -1.24 to -0.60; p<0.001) and non-elective caesarean section (99.2 vs 100.2; -1.03; 95% CI -1.34 to -0.72; p=0.001), performed poorer than those born vaginally. In sibling analyses, the association was attenuated to the null (100.9 vs 100.8; 0.07; 95% CI -0.31 to 0.45; p=0.712). Similarly, neither elective nor non-elective caesarean section were associated with general cognitive ability in sibling analyses. CONCLUSION: Birth by caesarean section is weakly associated with a lower general cognitive ability in young adult males. However, the magnitude of this association is not clinically relevant and seems to be largely explained by familial factors shared between siblings. CLINICAL IMPLICATION: Clinicians and gravidas ought not to be concerned that the choice of mode of delivery will impact offspring cognitive ability.

Physical activity in women attending a dissonance-based intervention after Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass: A 2-year follow-up of a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The majority of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) patients are not sufficiently physically active post-surgery, yet little support from the Swedish healthcare system is offered. We investigated if a dissonance-based group intervention, aiming to increase health-related quality of life after surgery, had any effect on patients' physical activity two years post-RYGB. METHODS: Women undergoing RYGB surgery were recruited from five Swedish hospitals and randomized to intervention or control group (standard post-surgery care). The dissonance-based intervention was conducted three months post-RYGB and consisted of four group sessions, each with a specific topic, of which one addressed physical activity. ActiGraph GT3X+ accelerometers were used to measure physical activity at pre-RYGB, one- and two-years post-surgery. RESULTS: At pre-RYGB, 259 women were recruited and randomized (intervention n = 156 and control n = 103). Participants had a mean age of 44.7 years (SD 10.3) and pre-RYGB body mass index of 40.8 (SD 4.5) kg/m2. At two-years follow-up, 99 participants (63.5%) in intervention group and 68 (66.0%) in control group had valid accelerometer-measurements. Pre- to post-surgery increases were seen in all physical activity outcomes, but no statistically significant differences between the groups were observed at the two-years follow-up, and intervention effects were poor (d = 0.02-0.35). CONCLUSION: To our knowledge, this is the first dissonance-based intervention targeting women undergoing RYGB surgery. At two-years follow-up, we did not observe any differences in physical activity levels between the intervention group and control group. Trial registration number: ISRCTN16417174.

Effects of the PRIMROSE prevention trial of childhood obesity on parental self-efficacy.

BACKGROUND: Parental self-efficacy (PSE) has been suggested as a key factor for enabling parents to support children in the development of healthy dietary and physical activity behaviors and to prevent childhood obesity. However, studies of intervention effects on PSE are lacking. The present study involved a secondary analysis of data on PSE collected in a previous primary prevention trial of childhood obesity called the PRIMROSE trial. The trial involved a family-based intervention using motivational interviewing and principles of cognitive-behavioral therapy within a social-cognitive theory framework. METHODS: In the PRIMROSE trial, parents and their children were randomly allocated to the intervention or usual care. In the present study, 928 mothers who responded to the Parental Self-Efficacy for Promoting Healthy Physical Activity and Dietary Behaviors in Children Scale (PSEPAD) at follow-up assessment were included. Data were analyzed using linear regression based on generalized estimating equations, with adjustment made for PSE at baseline. RESULTS: At follow-up assessment, there was a statistically significant difference of 1.4 units, 95% CI [0.4, 2.4], p = 0.009, between the intervention and control conditions on the subscale of the PSEPAD concerning PSE for promoting healthy dietary behaviors in children. However, this difference was deemed as without clinical importance. On the total scale or other subscales of the PSEPAD there were no statistically significant differences in PSE between conditions. CONCLUSIONS: There was a statistically significant, but not clinically meaningful, intervention effect on PSE. However, because previous research repeatedly has shown positive associations of PSE with dietary and physical activity behaviors in children and that self-efficacy mediates behaviors, the construct may be important for influencing dietary and physical behaviors in children. Therefore, more research is warranted evaluating the effects of interventions on PSE in the context of childhood obesity prevention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Retrospectively registered 9 October 2013 at ISRCTN (ISRCTN16991919 ).

Machine learning for prediction of diabetes risk in middle-aged Swedish people.

AIMS: To study if machine learning methodology can be used to detect persons with increased type 2 diabetes or prediabetes risk among people without known abnormal glucose regulation. METHODS: Machine learning and interpretable machine learning models were applied on research data from Stockholm Diabetes Preventive Program, including more than 8000 people initially with normal glucose tolerance or prediabetes to determine high and low risk features for further impairment in glucose tolerance at follow-up 10 and 20 years later. RESULTS: The features with the highest importance on the outcome were body mass index, waist-hip ratio, age, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and diabetes heredity. High values of these features as well as diabetes heredity conferred increased risk of type 2 diabetes. . The machine learning model was used to generate individual, comprehensible risk profiles, where the diabetes risk was obtained for each person in the data set. Features with the largest increasing or decreasing effects on the risk were determined. CONCLUSIONS: The primary application of this machine learning model is to predict individual type 2 diabetes risk in people without diagnosed diabetes, and to which features the risk relates. However, since most features affecting diabetes risk also play a role for metabolic control in diabetes, e.g. body mass index, diet composition, tobacco use, and stress, the tool can possibly also be used in diabetes care to develop more individualized, easily accessible health care plans to be utilized when encountering the patients.

Life-course trajectories of weight and their impact on the incidence of type 2 diabetes.

Although exposure to overweight and obesity at different ages is associated to a higher risk of type 2 diabetes, the effect of different patterns of exposure through life remains unclear. We aimed to characterize life-course trajectories of weight categories and estimate their impact on the incidence of type 2 diabetes. We categorized the weight of 7203 participants as lean, normal or overweight at five time-points from ages 7-55 using retrospective data. Participants were followed for an average of 19 years for the development of type 2 diabetes. We used latent class analysis to describe distinctive trajectories and estimated the risk ratio, absolute risk difference and population attributable fraction (PAF) associated to different trajectories using Poisson regression. We found five distinctive life-course trajectories. Using the stable-normal weight trajectory as reference, the stable overweight, lean increasing weight, overweight from early adulthood and overweight from late adulthood trajectories were associated to higher risk of type 2 diabetes. The estimated risk ratios and absolute risk differences were statistically significant for all trajectories, except for the risk ratio of the lean increasing trajectory group among men. Of the 981 incident cases of type 2 diabetes, 47.4% among women and 42.9% among men were attributable to exposure to any life-course trajectory different from stable normal weight. Most of the risk was attributable to trajectories including overweight or obesity at any point of life (36.8% of the cases among women and 36.7% among men). The overweight from early adulthood trajectory had the highest impact (PAF: 23.2% for woman and 28.5% for men). We described five distinctive life-course trajectories of weight that were associated to increased risk of type 2 diabetes over 19 years of follow-up. The variability of the effect of exposure to overweight and obesity on the risk of developing type 2 diabetes was largely explained by exposure to the different life-course trajectories of weight.

Genetic and environmental variation in educational attainment: an individual-based analysis of 28 twin cohorts.

We investigated the heritability of educational attainment and how it differed between birth cohorts and cultural-geographic regions. A classical twin design was applied to pooled data from 28 cohorts representing 16 countries and including 193,518 twins with information on educational attainment at 25 years of age or older. Genetic factors explained the major part of individual differences in educational attainment (heritability: a2 = 0.43; 0.41-0.44), but also environmental variation shared by co-twins was substantial (c2 = 0.31; 0.30-0.33). The proportions of educational variation explained by genetic and shared environmental factors did not differ between Europe, North America and Australia, and East Asia. When restricted to twins 30 years or older to confirm finalized education, the heritability was higher in the older cohorts born in 1900-1949 (a2 = 0.44; 0.41-0.46) than in the later cohorts born in 1950-1989 (a2 = 0.38; 0.36-0.40), with a corresponding lower influence of common environmental factors (c2 = 0.31; 0.29-0.33 and c2 = 0.34; 0.32-0.36, respectively). In conclusion, both genetic and environmental factors shared by co-twins have an important influence on individual differences in educational attainment. The effect of genetic factors on educational attainment has decreased from the cohorts born before to those born after the 1950s.

Birth Weight and Cardiorespiratory Fitness Among Young Men Born at Term: The Role of Genetic and Environmental Factors.

Background Preterm delivery and low birth weight are prospectively associated with low cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF). However, whether birth weight, within the at-term range, is associated with later CRF is largely unknown. Thus, the aim of the current study was to examine this issue and whether such association, if any, is explained by shared and/or nonshared familial factors. Methods and Results We conducted a prospective cohort study, including 286 761 young male adults and a subset of 52 544 siblings born at-term. Objectively measured data were retrieved from total population registers. CRF was tested at conscription and defined as the maximal load obtained on a cycle ergometer. We used linear and nonlinear and fixed-effects regression analyses to explore associations between birth weight and CRF. Higher birth weight, within the at-term range, was strongly associated with increasing CRF in a linear fashion. Each SD increase in birth weight was associated with an increase of 7.9 (95% CI, 7.8-8.1) and 6.6 (95% CI; 5.9-7.3) Wmax in the total and sibling cohorts, respectively. The association did not vary with young adulthood body mass index. Conclusions Birth weight is strongly associated with increasing CRF in young adulthood among men born at-term, across all categories of body mass index. This association appears to be mainly driven by factors that are not shared between siblings. Hence, CRF may to some extent be determined already in utero. Prevention of low birth weight, also within the at-term-range, can be a feasible mean of increasing adult CRF and health.

Accelerometer-measured versus self-reported physical activity levels in women before and up to 48 months after Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass.

BACKGROUND: Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass (RYGB) patients overestimate their time spent in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) to a greater extent post-surgery than pre-surgery. However, there is no data on discrepancy between self-reported and accelerometer-measured MVPA beyond nine months post-RYGB. The aim was to investigate how the duration of MVPA (main outcome) differs when comparing a self-administered questionnaire to accelerometer-data from pre-surgery and up to 48 months post-RYGB. METHODS: Twenty-six (38%) RYGB-treated women with complete data from the original cohort (N = 69) were included. Participants were recruited from five Swedish hospitals. Mean pre-surgery BMI was 38.9 (standard deviation (SD) = 3.4) kg/m2 and mean age 39.9 (SD = 6.5) years. MVPA was subjectively measured by a self-administered questionnaire and objectively measured by the ActiGraph GT3X+ accelerometer at 3 months pre-RYGB and 9- and 48 months post-RYGB. Means and SD were calculated at 3 months pre- and 9- and 48 months post-RYGB. We calculated the P-values of the differences with Wilcoxon Signed-Rank test. For correlations between the self-administered questionnaire and the accelerometers, Spearman's rank correlation was used. RESULTS: Participants significantly overestimated (i.e. self-reported more time spent in MVPA compared to accelerometry) their MVPA in a higher degree post- compared to pre-RYGB surgery. Compared to pre-surgery, self-reported MVPA increased with 46.9 and 36.5% from pre- to 9- and 48 months, respectively, whereas changes were a 6.1% increase and 3.5% decrease with accelerometers. Correlations between self-reported and accelerometer-measured MVPA-assessments were poor at all measurement points (r = 0.21-0.42) and only significant at 48 months post-RYGB (P = 0.032). CONCLUSIONS: The discrepancy between self-reported and objectively assessed MVPA within the same individual is greater up to 48 months post-RYGB compared to before surgery. To help bariatric patients understand and hopefully increase their physical activity behaviors post-surgery, objective measures of physical activity should be used.